|
THE
BROOKINGS INSTITUTION
RUSSIA-U.S. RELATIONS AND RUSSIA’S VISION
FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
Washington, D.C.
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
PARTICIPANTS:
Introduction: STROBE TALBOTT President The Brookings Institution
Featured Speaker: DMITRY MEDVEDEV President Russian Federation
* * * * *
ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria,
VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190
RUSSIA-2010/04/13 2
President Medvedev’s remarks were delivered in Russian.
The
following transcript is of the English simultaneous
translation.*****
MR. TALBOTT: Good afternoon, everybody. I’m Strobe Talbott, and
it is my great personal honor on behalf of all of us at The
Brookings Institution to host this extraordinary event, Dmitry
Medvedev, the President of the Russian Federation.
As all of you know, he is here in Washington to participate in a
summit that is intended to promote nuclear safety. That is a
cause that he and President Obama advanced just last week when
they signed the new START treaty in Prague. These two leaders
have also, in their personal interaction over the past year,
given a new start to U.S.-Russian relations.
Before turning the program over to him, I would be remiss if I
did not convey on behalf of all of us our deepest condolences to
President Medvedev and his fellow citizens on the tragedy that
they suffered as a result of a terrorist outrage two weeks on
March 29th. I happened to be riding as a passenger on the Moscow
Metro just a few days ago. It was a powerful and moving
experience, a reminder of the courage and the fortitude of a
great people. I might add that we all observed from a distance
with admiration and with compassion another recent event in
Moscow. While Russians were still grieving for their own
compatriots, President Medvedev led a throng of Muscovites in
laying flowers at the gate of the Polish Embassy in Moscow this
weekend.
The Russian people are fortunate to have in our guest of honor
today a leader who is working so hard to modernize their economy
and also working with Mr. Obama to build for all of us a safer
world. Mr. President, the podium is yours.
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Ladies and gentlemen, first of all, I would
like to say a few words. I would like to thank you for the
invitation to speak in this leading research center of the
United States of America. It is by right considered to be the
stronghold of liberal thought, and I know that this place has
won the fame as the talent foundry of the American political
class. Now, this is high time that I quote Robert Brookings, who
once said that the activity of the institution he had
established was based upon the belief that there is a necessity
to do precise and impartial identification of matters in the
study and presenting ideas without any kind of ideology. From
the first days of their work, your analysts advocate precisely
this principle, and this principle helped find solutions from
those difficult problems of the global politics and internal
problems as well.
Today the world is going through a period of profound
transformation and faces serious challenges in its search for
new models of development, although this phrase can be used for
any period of the development of the humankind. And for us it is
very important that there is concordance of interests and
interdependence of our approaches. The world will be harmonious
only when the parts which make it up do not collide, but
interact and create the basis for development. Democracy, human
rights, and market economy make up the basis of not only
national development, but also some common set of international
values.
The dialogue between Russia and the United States makes up an
important part of those. I am sincerely happy that our
cooperation is starting to yield concrete results. Moreover, I
must say that I am glad that, over the last year, we managed to
change the atmosphere of the Russian-American relationships.
That doesn’t mean that our relations have become cloudless and
everything is perfect, but the environment has been changed and
there are direct results. And I must say that I am glad that I
did part of that.
This meeting is taking place right after the Washington summit
on nuclear security. I would like to say it has been a complete
success. I don’t remember such a clear summit when all the
participants would be unanimous in their assessments of the
situation. This is not economy. This is not global crisis
discussion. This is the topic crucial for every state, and it’s
a real threat, a real challenge, for all of us.
Last week -- I would like to say once again, President Obama and
I signed a new treaty on reduction and limitation of strategic
offensive arms. And we made real progress, whatever the analysts
say about this treaty. They keep saying that the balance is
changing, and it can be advantageous for some of us; but
nevertheless, this is a real success. Russia and America have
not an easy history of relationships. Sometimes we run into
problems. Sometimes we suffocated each other in embrace. At
other times there was an abyss dividing us. But we should not
try to find differences; we should build a long-time pragmatic
relationship for the future based upon democratic values and
economic freedom and common goals to counter global threats.
True, we have a very different history, and people see things --
sometimes they see things in different ways. The USA has been
developing a market economy for two centuries already, while our
country in the 20th century has gone through a sequence of
economic and political experiments and ordeals. So as I strongly
believe, Russia needs several decades of gradually building up
an efficient political and economical system. And this is the
only way old disputes will be left in the past. To make this
happen, there is no need to teach each other how to live well.
We should communicate on a regular basis in an honest manner,
being absolutely frank.
The problems of our country are well known to us. Those are
corruption, technological underdevelopment, and unhealthy
lifestyles. But we began to change our system 20 years ago and
this system -- I would like to highlight this. The system does
have its own traditions and it has the trace of old-time
traditions. They have become a habit. Sometimes they are an
obstacle, but, to a certain extent, they provide protection to
society. They prevent it from falling apart. We know how to deal
with these problems. Using the experience of our friends, we
have to build partnerships on a whole range of matters.
On our part, we are ready to provide assistance to the United
States, if it is needed, and sometimes it is needed in resolving
some problems. Declaring the principles of democracy is not what
is needed. A lot of countries do that, and not even changing
laws -- although improvement of legislation is a necessary task
for us -- is not enough. What is important is that we exercise
the principles of democracy.
Practice is the criterion of truth and political practice, or
legal practice, indicates all the best and the worst parts of a
system. This is really important and that’s when we’ll
successfully fight corruption; then we will discharge people who
are unqualified for their service. And what is important today
is receiving feedback from the citizens. And I think that this
should be done by every official, every statesman, whatever
authoritative level they have they should use the technology. I
try to do this, and I believe that others should do that as
well.
Today we have a lot of opportunities to do that, and sometimes I
think that very often states people have become slaves to their
aides who sort the materials, make the files, and present them
to read. And sometimes they decide what can be shown to the
leader and what cannot be shown because they want to present
their country and their work in a positive light, but the time
has changed. Whatever I read or President Obama reads we always
have the possibility to go online and see what is happening in
reality. This doesn’t mean that the Internet is the final source
of truth, but this is an alternative source of information. We
don’t need our aides that much today. We can immerse ourselves
into information. This is a very important advance that we don’t
sometimes realize to the full extent.
We will cooperate with the United States on the most important
issues like countering terrorism, trans-border crime, and
piracy. We regulate regional conflicts. We are trying to counter
the climate change effects, and we pay special attention to the
international relationships regulation like the United Nations.
This is a good platform. It is universal. And we work in the
framework of the G-8 and G-20, and we’re going to continue this
work. We are going to overcome the effects of the global
economic crisis as well because we do not know what the future
will be.
But there are various scenarios, and soon we will be meeting
each other in the format of the G-8 and in the format of the
G-20. We are dealing with regional security issues, and I would
like to draw everyone’s attention to the initiative which we
came up with after I was elected, which is the American-European
Security Treaty. And this is an important thing. It is not aimed
against any organization. This was not the reason behind it.
This is not a trick made by Russians against NATO or OSCE. We
are just trying to add a better tool to the security system.
Another issue on which we work quite extensively now and we
discuss it -- maybe you will have some questions on that -- is
the Iranian nuclear issue. Now, a lot is being said about the
need to impose sanctions on Iran, and the reasons for those
sanctions are totally clear. Iran still hasn’t responded to the
compromise suggestions that have been made to it. We are
discussing these suggestions on sanctions with our colleagues in
the six-party talks. Last time we discussed this topic with
President Obama in Prague when we saw each other to sign the new
START treaty. It doesn’t mean that sanctions are such a good and
healthy thing and they don’t always bring about the necessary
results, and certainly they should not punish the people. They
should only prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Only in that
case they can be efficient.
We are assisting Afghanistan in their transformation towards a
stable and sustainable developing state. We are trying to assist
them in assuring a peaceful life. We work together in the
political area. We are trying -- to ensure political settlement,
we are reinforcing the local authorities, assisting the police
-- we are working together on transitional issues. I believe
that all this will eventually contribute to a common result. So
far, little is being done to counteract the drug trafficking
originating from Afghanistan. Maybe that is because America is
less affected by this problem and Russia and Europe are
suffering more. These drugs go to all countries and we should
achieve greater progress on that.
We have similar approaches on the Middle East settlement. We
need to create necessary conditions for the creation of an
independent Palestinian state. So far we are facing a lot of
difficulties. Until then we cannot expect a durable and
sustainable peace in the Middle East. So far the United States
is taking vigorous efforts to recover the constructive process,
including through proximity talks. We totally support this idea
and this year I have met almost all of the Middle East leaders.
I supported indirect talks. We hosted the meeting of the Quartet
in Moscow. And I hope that eventually it will lead to direct
negotiations. Any stop in the development always brings about
lagging behind. That is why our country started modernizing its
economy and started the technological innovation introduction.
So far, frankly speaking, we haven’t done that much, and here we
like to count on the partnership with leading economies in all
of the world including the U.S. economy. And I was very happy
with our discussion with President Obama when we started
discussing our agenda not with the Middle East and not with Iran
and not with the problem of the START treaty, but we started our
discussion with economic cooperation between our two countries
and I believe that, the truth to be told, it is the area that
most failed in our relationship. Now we have recovered a dynamic
development in this area. We have established a constructive
relationship at the personal level between the presidents. But
there are no economic results to that so far, so I would like to
reiterate that it would be a very useful thing, though business
is business and it is governed by its own rules. We cannot
impose things on it, but we can create conditions conducive to
its development.
I have quoted a saying by the founder of this institution, Mr.
Brookings, and it would be wrong should I not quote at this
institution the incumbent U.S. President when he was addressing
a meeting in Russia. He said that America needs a powerful,
peaceful, and prosperous Russia. Those are good words. But
Russia in turn also needs a responsible, peaceful, recognized,
and dynamic developing America, an America that enjoys the
respect of the entire international community, that develops
partnership with other countries on an equal footing and that
develops its position towards the development of a new system of
international relations. That would be a great thing to achieve.
At this point I would like to finish my remarks and now we can
start the more interesting part of this meeting, the Q&A
session. If you don’t mind, I will stay here to take your
questions.
MR. TALBOTT: Mr. President, thank you so much. We will in a few
minutes open the conversion to include our friends here in the
audience, but perhaps I could get the conversation going a
little bit between the two of us by asking you to follow-up a
bit on two issues, and they both boil down to one question,
which is what next? What next for the negotiations between the
Russian Federation and the United States on nuclear and other
armaments now that you have the new START treaty done, awaiting
ratification of course on both sides? And what next by way of
follow-up on what you have described as a very successful
Nuclear Safety Summit here in Washington?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Frankly speaking, I really hope that more
work will be done after that, more work will follow. Speaking
about the outcomes of the summit, I hope that we will not just
go home feeling happy. As to the START treaty, I would like to
see at least one legal fact after that, the ratification of the
treaty. If it does take place, it will mean that President Obama
and I did not work in vain, and should there be no ratification,
it will mean that we have gone back to some kind of Soviet times
when these kind of treaties were not ratified. But on the other
hand, it would be very important in my mind that our
relationship should not be reduced to nuclear cooperation or to
the limitation of strategic arms, though certainly it is
something that people expect of us, and in this regard, we have
assumed a great responsibility towards the international
community. I would like us to have a much broader cooperation on
all the other areas.
As to the future of the treaty and our further steps, I would
like us to undertake all the necessary procedures provided for
in the treaty. I would like the treaty to be transparent. I
would like it to be acceptable to both our societies in Russia
and the United States. I hope it will not cause any tensions.
And I hope it will help us to build on our future cooperation,
though, frankly speaking, besides strategic offensive arms,
there are other types of arms that are quite dangerous as well
that also require an agreement between us, that require a
discussion between us because there are conventional forces that
can cause a dramatic damage and on such systems we haven’t yet
coordinated our position as to what to do next. There are issues
on which we should formulate a common position like nuclear
terrorism, like nonproliferation, like control over states that
are threshold countries and that are trying to use all the ways
to sneak into the nuclear club. This is our joint responsibility
and I would like us to work on that together.
MR. TALBOTT: Thank you very much. I suspect maybe some of our
colleagues will return to these issues, but if I could ask you
one question about Russia and the global economy, and that is
what do you see as to the prospects for Russia being part of the
World Trade Organization?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Being honest, I think that we should have
been in the WTO a long time ago because we have been on this
threshold longer than any other country, even such a big country
as China. Being honest, I think the issue of Russia’s accession
to WTO is highly politicized. It has been a carrot before us.
They keep saying, well, behave well and we will accept you to
the WTO, but this is not correct because if we accede to the
organization, everyone will benefit, not only Russia. It is a
very important part of the international economy. Whatever
people say, we have a lot of things to offer and the
harmonization of the rules we use is very important.
Talking about my personal position, we would like accede to the
WTO and we should make this procedure not humiliating for us.
And I will be frank; I know that Barack Obama will be not
offended. He said that Russia should join WTO quickly. We
started the process in 2006 when our relationship was just
evolving, but there is no result as yet and we count very much
on a favorable position of the new administration to force the
joining of Russia to the WTO. This does not run counter to other
commitments like a customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan.
All the processes can be harmonized and help each other benefit
from it.
MR. TALBOTT: Thank you very much, Mr. President. I’m going to
invite the audience to put some questions succinctly as possible
to President Medvedev, and I’d also ask, please, to be sure that
they are questions and that you identify yourself when you stand
up to ask. We have microphones around the room. I’ll start with
Ambassador Rick Burt.
AMBASSADOR BURT: Richard Burt, the Global Zero Initiative. Mr.
President, I listened very carefully to the answer you gave
Strobe Talbott about what’s next and you’ve outlined a number of
areas that the United States and the Russian Federation could
work on: European security, conventional forces, proliferation.
Does your answer suggest that a new round of further reductions
in nuclear forces is not a Russian priority, a new round of
negotiations following the START treaty and hopefully its
ratification is not a Russian priority, or would you support a
follow-up negotiation to achieve deeper cuts?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Mr. Burt, I would like to say that this is
an important priority for Russia as well as for the United
States. Ratification is a process that should be addressed by
all of us together by each country and we have agreed with Mr.
Obama that ratification will be simultaneous, not to make
everyone in -- not to put anyone in an awkward situation talking
about further reduction of strategic potentials; this is our aim
in general. There is no doubt about this, and today at the
summit I said that the idea of a global zero today is not an
illusion. But we should be honest with each other talking about
responsibility about the situation on the planet. This is not
only a Russia-America responsibility though we have the biggest
part of armaments. If one day people will arrive at global zero,
that will be made not only by Russia and America, it will be a
collective effort. And I will not point to finger anyone, but we
have partners who are less willing to cut their potentials than
Russia or America and we have to convince them to go that way.
But talking about the further process, talks, we are ready for
that and we are going to engage in this. This is natural, but
today we have made a threshold ceiling for the next 10 years and
this is enough now, and if there is a need then we will discuss
the new levels. But these 10 years will be peaceful for us as
long as we ratify this treaty and if the thing written in the
preamble will not happen, it says about the link between ABM and
strategic offensive arms, this is a hard issue. We have been
discussing it for a long time and we have created this formula
that the parties acknowledge this link and we have worked out a
principle or a statement that the treaty will be in effect as
long as the development of ABM or other arms development will
not contradict the principles of this treaty -- this is a
sensitive point. Like President Obama, I am optimistic about
this and we hope that we will not stop the treaty or withdraw
from it having some problems about ABM or other issues. But
everything depends on us and other politicians who will treat
this issue.
MR. TALBOTT: You have Mr. Margelov as part of your delegation
and perhaps he can coordinate with his American counterpart
Senator Kerry on the two ratification processes.
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Would you like to make a question? Now you
have this opportunity.
MR. TALBOTT: Mr. Margelov, you’ve been invited by your
president.
MR. MARGELOV: Thank you. I will ask a question in Russian. Mr.
President, next week we will be discussing with the Senate the
synchronized simultaneous ratification and the main issue that
is being asked by all counterparts. When will the Russian
President submit this document to the Russian Parliament?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: When will the American President do it?
MR TALBOTT: The first week of May.
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Then we will do the same thing right then.
We can do that as a package deal, like two packages. In the
morning I’ll make a call to Mr. Obama and ask him are you doing
it? And then I do the same thing, I’ll send the package right
there.
MR. TALBOTT: Congressman Delahunt is here. You can perhaps give
Mr. Margelov some advice on how to synchronize our own
legislative branch.
REP. DELAHUNT: We have a problem, Strobe, as you know. It’s
called the United States Senate. But if I could --
MR. TALBOTT: I said Congressman Delahunt.
REP. DELAHUNT: Hi. I’m Congressman Bill Delahunt. Welcome and
congratulations on the signing of the treaty. And I know many of
us in the House of Representatives hope that the Senate does
proceed to ratification.
But I do have a question. And you referenced the economic
relationship between the United States and Russia. And recently
we had a visit from the State Duma delegation headed by Deputy
Kosachev and that issue did arise. And I think we all agree that
the level of commerce between the United States and Russia is
unacceptable. It’s abysmally low.
We have some ideas on the House side as to how we would like the
Russians to make some adjustments. But if you had a wish list of
what you would like to see coming from the Administration and
from Congress in terms of initiatives economically, what would
they be?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Well, the question is, how many wishes can
be fulfilled? For example, there are wishes that are never to
come true that we are not even mentioning anymore because they
are probably impossible ones. They are wishes impossible to
fulfill such as the withdrawal of the Jackson-Vanik amendment.
It’s such a complicated thing that even in front of this high
audience, I’m not speaking about it.
Well, seriously speaking we need to review our current economic
relationship. Before the crisis our bilateral trade was around
25-, $30 billion. This is not that much taking into account the
size of the American and the Russian economy. Frankly speaking,
the volume of trade between Russia and the EU is $250 billion.
The trade between the Russian Federation and the People’s
Republic of China is smaller now, but still it is two and a half
times bigger than that with the United States.
But it’s not only about the volume of trade, it’s about the
investment as well. As far as the investment is concerned, the
situation is not that good, but at least it’s a parity
situation. We oftentimes use this word. The volume of the U.S.
investment in the Russian economy is around $7 billion. This is
nothing. It’s a zero. The volume of the Russian investments in
the U.S. economy is $6 billion. This is a little bigger than
with other countries, but after all, it’s not that much.
Anyway, the volume of the Dutch investment in the U.S. economy
is $150 billion. This is the difference in the balances. It
doesn’t mean that we will be able to breach this gap very soon,
but anyway, mutual investments bring countries much closer
together and they facilitate development. Most importantly,
there should be understanding between investors and the state
should see these investments positively as well. It is about
creating favorable regimes for such investments and in general
about a favorable treatment to such foreign investment.
In our country the investment climate is not the best possible
and we should do everything to make it more attractive. It
doesn’t mean that things are so perfect in the United States,
but there are things we need to do in order to improve the
climate and its elements, some economic regimes that could be
used, including the situation with the legal system. We can
improve the functioning of our accords, we could combat
corruption. Those are the barriers to trade and investment, and
not only from the United States. We see these problems and, most
importantly, our partners should see their own problems as well,
including those problems that impede Russian investments or the
implementation of joint projects in third countries.
MR. TALBOTT: Bill, I’ll come back to you and ask if it’s true
that what I’ll call the retirement of Jackson-Vanik is an
impossible dream, an impossible wish?
MR. DELAHUNT: I do not believe it is impossible, Mr. President,
and I think there is sentiment in Congress today to address the
issue. You’re probably unaware, but recently there has been the
formation in the House of a Russian Caucus, and it’s an issue
that’s being discussed and discussed seriously.
MR. TALBOTT: Toby Gati?
MS. GATI: Thank you, Mr. President. Toby Gati, Akin
Gump.
There was a great outpouring in the United States of unity with
Russia after the terrible terrorist act and in part this is due
to the many contacts that had been made between Americans and
Russians in the past 20 years, which is a very positive
development.
In your first comments about this attack you said that Russia
had to deal with terrorism very harshly, but also respect human
rights and the rule of law. But we’ve heard a lot about the
first and very little about the latter, and indeed after Beslan
there was a tightening up in the political system.
You’ve talked for many months about the reform of the security
structures and the judicial system, and maybe it’s even more
necessary now. So, my question is this: How do you convince
society, how do you convince other people in your government
that part of the fight against terrorism is respect for human
rights and for all of Russia’s citizens? And how do you hope to
avoid the overreactions that have taken place in other societies
after terrorist acts?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Well, you have touched upon a hard issue.
It’s not always that the society requires that human rights be
respected in the wake of a terrorist attack. As a rule, the
society requires that the criminals be punished and in a most
serious way, especially for terrorists, and only some secondary
voices speak to the human rights. And this is something typical
not only for Russia, this is not only a trait for the civil
society in Russia, this happens in all the countries.
In the wake of terrorist attacks the people demand retaliation.
But we’re living in the 21st century and we understand that in
the case of such attacks a full-fledged investigation should
take place and it should involve all the parties concerned that
are in charge of such issues in the country. And the final
decision, the final ruling in such cases, should be made by the
court. But there is a gap between the public sentiment and the
position of the law enforcement and judicial system. And this is
an actual problem that we cannot turn a blind eye to. Besides,
it is necessary to establish a climate of understanding, not
only inside our society, but also understanding between the
Russian society and the American society, between the Russian
political establishment and the U.S. political establishment.
I’m referring to the following: We need to use the same scale to
each other after the perpetration of the latest savage terrorist
attacks in the Russian Metro. The reaction of the entire world
was very consolidated and correct. It was as consolidated as
ever. Nevertheless, in some cases we still see that old
stereotypes are used that are quite offensive and insulting to
Russia, including these cases are seen in the United States. I
reviewed the press after the attacks and terrorists were still
called rebels. We cannot accept that. It is unacceptable to us.
I believe it insults the memory of those who died in the subway
station.
This is a small detail that is quite indicative. On such issues
we should be much closer together, we should hear each other
better, and then we will be more successful in overcoming the
consequences of such terrorist attacks. Speaking about the great
solidarity of the Russian people towards the U.S. people, in
2001, this solidarity was quite high and we should learn to use
the same scale while evaluating each other’s situations. And we
should be -- show solidarity to each other in many events,
including such tragic ones as the death of President Kaczynski
and his spouse and a great part of the Polish political elite.
MR. INDYK: Thank you. Martin Indyk, director of foreign policy
at Brookings. Welcome to Brookings, Mr. President, and thank you
for your wise, constructive leadership of Russia.
My question is
about Iran. I wonder if you could describe for us how you view
Iran’s nuclear program. Is it a threat to Russian national
security interests? And now -- are you concerned about it
triggering a nuclear arms race in the Middle East? And now that
you and President Obama are on the same page when it comes to
sanctions, are you also on the same page with him when he says
that force should be an option that’s kept on the table?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV:
The talks about Iran with Mr. Obama and my
other colleagues are a part of our agenda. We do that regularly
and on a full basis. This means that Iran is a problem to some
extent and what is important that we find evidence of what their
nuclear program is. As any society, they do have the right to
develop the civilian nuclear program, but the problem is how
they convince the community that it is civilian. And lately we
did not bring any improvement to the situation, it has
aggravated, and Iran ignores the questions addressed to it. They
keep saying small phrases and make small suggestions, so we deal
with this together, talking about the future.
I would not favor sanctions because sanctions is a repression,
an imposing of some actions. But if nothing happens, we will
have to deal with sanctions. The question is, what kind of
sanctions are these? Many times I have answered these questions,
what kind of sanctions we need. I do not favor paralyzing,
crippling sanctions, make people suffer in a humanitarian sense.
This is immoral and it creates negative results, negative
feedback, and I have grounds to believe that some people need
this. They are waiting for a real clash of positions, but
sanctions must be intelligent. And the question is, how we
understand this word, what is acceptable and what is
unacceptable? Sanctions must be universal. They must be
discussed with the main participants of the international
process on this question, and the sanctions must be aimed at one
result. That’s why the position upon sanctions depends not only
on the United States, Europe, Russia, but also on China, Latin
America.
In this case only, these decisions, if it is needed, are able to
give results in talking about the Middle East, and what can
happen over there if the nuclear program is implemented and a
nuclear conflict arises. That would be a gigantic catastrophe.
We all can imagine what can happen in the Middle East if just
one terrorist act happens there if nuclear arms are used. The
Middle East is called the Middle East because it is small enough
for bombings to happen in one place, for it to start spreading
all over the world, and that would trigger a humanitarian
catastrophe and huge exodus of people from different countries.
And the worst thing is that it will trigger the nuclear arms
race.
Many colleagues from the Arabic world say that if Iran gets
nuclear arms, they will have no scruples without having them as
well, and this will enlarge the nuclear club, and then no summit
will help. If all of those countries have nuclear arms, that
will open a new page in the history of humankind which will be
very sad. And I hope that we will be able to agree and will
manage to solve this issue by political –means.
MR. TALBOTT: Thank you, Mr. President.
Secretary William Coleman.
MR. COLEMAN: Mr. President, I really want to thank you for being
here. I come from that generation of American people that were
involved in the Second World War, and we certainly had great
pride when we went into Great Britain and swept through France.
But I don’t think we really thanked the Russians enough for the
fact of being on the East [Front] and having 25 divisions, and I
think that made a lot of difference. So what I want to do is
thank you and the Russian people for that.
The question I’m going to ask you is the same question I wanted
to ask General Petraeus today when he spoke at lunchtime, and
that was as the military decided that we had to go into
Afghanistan, what would have happened that if the military had
said the Russians, will you join us? Because after all you had a
big battle there, and I think you still have problems there.
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: If I understood you rightly, you are talking
about military presence of Russia in such operations? Do I get
you right?
MR. TALBOTT: Joining the United States and its allies in the
military operations in Afghanistan.
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Well, I have been talking about Afghanistan
as our common concern, and every country has their own history,
and sometimes it is very sad. Our country has also its history
of work in Afghanistan back in Soviet times, and that was a very
hard page of our history.
I’m not sure that our society is ready to once again open that
page, but that doesn’t mean that we would like to stay on the
sidelines. And we have agreed upon all questions of cooperation
of Afghanistan starting with military transit and humanitarian,
social and economic projects, restoring of its economy.
We should cooperate in this realm, but what is more important
today is giving an opportunity to the Afghanistan political
system to develop because we understand that America cannot be
there all the time. It cannot be lasting forever. It’s a very
hard burden.
But if America leaves Afghanistan and the alliance leaves this
place, then how will the political system live in Afghanistan?
The political system must become independent. It must gain some
momentum, and that’s what has to be our common aim.
When I meet President Karzai the first thing I ask is how the
political process is going because this is absolutely important,
and this is the thing which the Soviet Union failed to do. No
matter what values we brought there, but our country tried to
create a political system. We failed to do that, and Afghanistan
rejected this political system and this political experiment.
So today’s aim is that the modern political system of
Afghanistan would be created, and an effective government would
appear there, and then we may say that our aim has been done.
MR. TALBOTT: Mr. President, I might insert here a question about
Kyrgyzstan, which has a pertinence of course to the
effectiveness of allied and coalition operations in Afghanistan.
You referred to your own country as help in opening transport
routes. What is your assessment of the current situation in
Kyrgyzstan?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: The situation in Kyrgyzstan is difficult.
Once again, Kyrgyzstan is living through a stage of a legitimate
development, and unfortunately I believe that the responsibility
for that is born by the Kyrgyz authorities themselves who hadn’t
taken effort earlier to consolidate the civil society, to agree
with the opposition to settle the numerous conflicts underway
and to organize normal economic development -- once the former
Kyrgyz president was outcast, and he was forced to leave the
country, one of the reproaches he received was economic crimes,
corruption.
A couple of years later, we see the same slogans and the same
people there, only they switched places, which is quite sad
because Kyrgyzstan is a close neighbor of ours, and least of all
we would like to see Kyrgyzstan turning into a failed state. The
risk of Kyrgyzstan falling into two parts, the northern part and
the southern part, is still there, and it is important to
prevent bloodshed. Around 100 people have been killed already.
Now the question is not about who started the whole thing,
though certainly an investigation should be held to see who
triggered all those problems. The most important thing is to
prevent a civil war now, and I believe that Kyrgyzstan is on the
verge of a civil war now. All the forces in Kyrgyzstan should
realize their responsibility towards the Kyrgyz nation and
Kyrgyz people, and towards the future of the Kyrgyz state.
We ourselves understand perfectly what a civil war means today.
If, God forbid, it started, it will immediately attract
terrorists and extremists of all kinds because in the course of
such conflicts the best possible conditions are created for
radical movements. In this case, instead of Kyrgyzstan, an
Afghanistan of some years ago can emerge, a different
Afghanistan before the military operations there. So our task
now is to help our Kyrgyz partners to find the calmest possible
way to overcome the situation.
How can we do that? We need to soothe down the people. We should
form a government that would be viable. And some political
leaders will need to assume important decisions as to their
future, a decision that should be motivated by the interests of
the Kyrgyz people and not by their personal political ambitions.
MR. WEST: Mr. President, I’m Darrell West, vice president of
governance studies here at Brookings.
I was very interested in your talk in the section about
technology and how that broadens your source of information. I’m
just curious how technology has changed your leadership style.
And when you go online, what are you looking for? Also, do you
and President Obama ever e-mail one another?
MR. TALBOTT: Or Twitter?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: We don’t e-mail each other, with President
Obama, but it is a good idea indeed. That would be the fastest
possible way to talk to each other because until we coordinate
our communications with our assistants, then we communicate in
writing. It takes a lot of time.
In this case, we could just have a couple of iPhones, and we
could just exchange text messages or e-mails. I am quite
familiar with that, as well as President Obama, as far as I
understand.
But speaking about the changes that occurred in my life, to this
new information environment, I should say that a lot of things
have changed, and it’s not a figure of speech. This is about our
habits, and habits are the things we’re made of.
If some time ago I started my morning with reading a newspaper
or a digest or just watching the TV, I don’t do that anymore. I
just go online, and I find all the things there. There are
newspapers, TV channels, Russian media, foreign media, media
that are favorable to the Russian President, media that hate the
Russian President, and they certainly speak whatever they think,
which is very important because I don’t have a perfect picture
of what is going on. The picture that many predecessors of mine
and in other countries used to have, this gives an opposite
effect.
Very often, I review some requests or comments of desperate
people who write about corruption, law violations, about other
problems. I certainly cannot answer all those comments. But the
most outrageous things, due to internet can trigger support from
people, and then whole open letters are written by many people
at the same time. This is a certainly a reason for a feedback
from me, and then I instruct my agencies and ministries and the
government to attend to that. Originally, it caused it some kind
of a surprise, but now people are used to that.
Moreover, I have started a blog that is run at my presidential
website, and now governors have started doing this as well. For
some, it is a totally formal thing. Others really communicate
with people. If earlier officials were threatened by some
addresses to their bosses, to the Kremlin, now they are
threatened by such comments that people can write on the
President’s website.
This is becoming a part of our life. It cannot help us in all
the things, in all the problems, but it is certainly helpful. In
our society, in Russia, it is probably even more important than
anywhere else. In our society, these bureaucratic traditions
have ages-long history, and always authorities have been too far
from the people, and probably it originated some political
traditions as well. This type of communications helps us redress
these kind of bad traditions, and I like this thing.
MR. TALBOTT: I don’t know if it’s going to be possible to have
simultaneous ratification of the new START treaty in our Senate
and your Parliament, but I’m sure that your opening proposal
about [how] you and President Obama are going to communicate is
going to cause a simultaneous spontaneous nervous breakdown in
the White House and in the Kremlin. But I’m sure you’re up to
handling that.
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: No problem.
MR. TALBOTT: Antoine van Agtmael.
MR. VAN AGTMAEL: Antoine van Agtmael, Emerging Markets
Management. If I may, I would like to switch to the economy as
all the other questions except the technology question were
about the political side. Two questions, looking back and
looking forward.
Looking back, after the global crisis Russia was hit by quite a
steep and fast economic recession. Did that surprise you and
also how fast Russia bounced out of it?
The second question is Russia’s well-known to have the largest
reserves of gas in the world. Is that changing now that so much
gas, huge quantities of gas, are being found in the United
States, Hungary, all over the world? How will that change
relations with Europe and even China?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Speaking about the global recession, if I
were surprised--I will be frank, well, I was surprised. Every
one of us have their own stereotypes, their own understanding of
what are the weak places of economy and what are not. So the
thing that happened after the crisis, the beginning of the
crisis in our country, was a surprise because the extent to
which it fell was more than I could have expected. I’m not
talking about other economies. I talked to my European
counterparts and American counterparts. All of them were
surprised, but that was outrageous for me how our economy
depends on raw materials. I never understood that we are so much
dependent on raw materials and this made me talk about
modernization, about technology.
But for the crisis, probably we would live by our own inertia
and living with high prices on oil and gas. I’m happy that this
crisis happened. Well, this is bad that the economy has fallen
down, and it is bad that this crisis made people suffer. Many
people lost their jobs, it hit people very hard. But this crisis
should change our mindset, our economic approach and as far it
hasn’t changed much.
Many businesspeople and ordinary people are waiting for high oil
prices. It’s $85 per barrel now. It’s okay now, but maybe it
will be 140 someday and then we can do -- we can rest easy doing
nothing. But the problem is that this is top-down development
and one day the price will fall and the prices harmonize
somehow. And being unable to reconstruct and re-equip, our
economy will fail, so we have to use this chance.
The main challenge today is how fast we can do that. We would
like to do it as soon as possible, but this is too difficult. So
we have outlined five priorities of technological reforms, not
because they are universal, but because they are quite
important. And if we are successful in these ones -- like space,
atomic energy, pharmaceutical drugs, energy efficiency, new
technologies in energy – if we will have some advancements in
these realms, then it will be very good. Although high prices
for energy carriers is good. We’re not going to lower them. It
gives us some advantage.
The main thing is not to rely on gas and oil only. And the fact
that America has found new gas opportunities, this is not bad.
That will help us be more attentive towards our possibilities,
our opportunities. And whatever we say, once every 50 years an
energy revolution happens. First it was coal, then oil, then
gas, then nuclear power. And I believe that in 30 to 50 years
from now, the situation in energies here will be different in
both our countries. I don’t know if we will use hydrogen power,
but being complacent with gas and oil is not good today.
MR. TALBOTT: I’d like to tag a question onto Antoine’s. You
mentioned the BRIC countries in your opening remarks. And you
meet from time to time and are going to be meeting shortly with
your fellow leaders of that grouping. When you get together with
them do you talk about these issues and compare perspectives and
plans? And what do you see as the future of that grouping?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: I not only speak to them. After this meeting
I’m going to Latin America where the BRIC summit will be held
Brazil. And this group, this community of countries today is
formed already. This doesn’t mean that this is a full-fledged
organization, but these are four countries developing at a fast
pace. And if we are able to find consolidated approaches, we can
do that on many questions, not on all of them, but the things we
discuss, like economy and politics, -- they’re important. And
today, BRIC has become a factor of international development.
Does that mean that this is a community having an eternal shape
and it is rigid? I don’t think so, but in order to change it we
have to reach a common approach. We have to agree. Last year,
when we met each other and discussed these issues in Russia,
with all of the statesmen of BRIC, we discussed national
measures and economic development. This is very good for us. And
the outlook of our society is positive and we’re going to
develop this structure.
MR. TALBOTT: Ambassador Sestanovich, the last question will be
yours.
AMBASSADOR SESTANOVICH: Stephen Sestanovich, Council on Foreign
Relations. This is probably the first Brookings event at which
two questions about Kyrgyzstan have been asked. This is number
two.
Since the --
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: The Kyrgyz nation will be happy.
AMBASSADOR SESTANOVICH: -- (inaudible) President Bakiyev, some
analysts, including in Russia, have noted how critical Russia
was of him and said that Russia was angry that Kyrgyzstan had
not kicked the Americans out of the base. Can you clarify this?
Can you say that Russia has no objection to American access to
the base in Kyrgyzstan to support our operations in Afghanistan?
PRESIDENT MEDVEDEV: Mr. Sestanovich, how can Russia even object
against sovereign decisions made by other states? This is their
decision. We can either like it or not, but it’s a decision made
by the Kyrgyz leadership, and President Bakiyev is a coherent
person. He first said that he was going to make a decision to
eliminate the American base in Kyrgyzstan, and then he made the
very same coherent decision to maintain the Center for Transit
Movement. I believe that coherency and consistency is always the
better -- the best characteristic of a politician. The more
coherent a person is, the better his results are. And we can see
the results of the incumbent Kyrgyz president now. It does not
mean, though, that we in some way are trying to impede that. On
the contrary, when I met President Bakiyev, I always told him it
is necessary to assist our U.S. partners in addressing the tasks
in Afghanistan.
The other question is how effective this assistance is.
Therefore, all the possibilities were there.
MR. TALBOTT: Mr. President, before I say a few words of thanks
to you, I just want to ask our friends in the audience please
remain seated after we have concluded the program so that I can
escort President Medvedev out of the building.
To you, sir, I would just like to express particular
appreciation not just for the substance of what you have said,
which was remarkable in its breadth and its depth and in its
candor, but also the spirit that you brought to this discussion.
You opened your remarks, first of all, by quoting our founder,
Robert S. Brookings. He would be very proud indeed to have his
name associated with this event today.
You also said some kind words about the summit that President
Obama hosted. I’m sure you’ve had a chance to express those to
him. But obviously that meeting set a very high standard, a very
unusual standard, but you’ve done the same thing here with this
discussion. And I can sense, I know enough people around the
room, and I know the body English and the body Russian, to have
a pretty high degree of confidence that we all are in your debt
for spending this much time with us and covering as much ground
as you did.
So I’d ask all of you to please join me in thanking President
Medvedev and hope that you have safe travels.
* * * * *
ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria,
VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190
RUSSIA-2010/04/13 ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street,
Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703)
519-7190 37
CERTIFICATE OF NOTARY PUBLIC
I, Carleton J. Anderson, III do hereby certify that the forgoing
electronic file when originally transmitted was reduced to text
at my direction; that said transcript is a true record of the
proceedings therein referenced; that I am neither counsel for,
related to, nor employed by any of the parties to the action in
which these proceedings were taken; and, furthermore, that I am
neither a relative or employee of any attorney or counsel
employed by the parties hereto, nor financially or otherwise
interested in the outcome of this action.
/s/Carleton J. Anderson, III
Notary Public in and for the Commonwealth of Virginia Commission
No. 351998 Expires: November 30, 2012 |